發文作者:kahoo | 十月 11, 2007

分析原因: 袁海耀.李基傑 為何落敗?


精彩重溫:

Part 1 (starts at 26:30):
The Moment– 袁海耀從李家豪口中知道自己落敗的第一刻
www.torontofirstradio.com/archive.asp?filename=ampart12-10-11-2007.asf

Part 2:
分析袁海耀落敗原因–《今天的愛人是誰》
www.torontofirstradio.com/archive.asp?filename=ampart13-10-11-2007.asf

Part 3:
專訪保守黨在 GTA地區唯一勝出的侯選人– 電台名嘴 Peter Shurman
www.torontofirstradio.com/archive.asp?filename=ampart14-10-11-2007.asf

Part 4:
袁海耀與《一本政經》聽眾空中對話
分析李基傑落敗原因–《你知道我在等你嗎》
www.torontofirstradio.com/archive.asp?filename=ampart15-10-11-2007.asf


Source: Ming Pao


Responses

  1. IMO the problem is the party’s overall election strategy… they focused too much on “Why we should not vote for Liberal"; but they didn’t give enough reason for the public “Why we should vote for PC". In the current case, protest votes (thanks Ka Hoo, I learned this term from power politics) is not strong enough.

  2. PC faith-based 反效應是主因!
    副因: K.K. Li 敗在對手動員力強, 其本人政治觸覺欠銳,競選經理像太監輔政,焉能不敗?? K.K. 這不是你杯茶!!
    副因: Alex Yuan今次已有進步! 敗陣非戰之罪!多點曝光,下次成功可期!

  3. 仲黎賽後檢討呀? 講到有少少口臭喇喎..哎呀呀好啦好啦講埋今次啦﹗
    依小人之愚見﹐

    袁海耀輸:
    (一) 華人唔投票 : 絕對係有影響。雖然你話就話華人出黎投票都唔一定會投比佢 – 係﹐但係我敢話﹐一般嘅華人出得黎投票﹐就算投白票定選綠黨﹐都斷不會揀伊朗佬而唔揀佢。

    你話如果伊朗佬係咩勁嘢咁都話﹐但你都識講佢都係新仔﹐同埋牽涉過廿萬slush fund﹐如果唔係佢嘅同鄉又做咩無端端撐佢?

    會投票比伊朗佬嘅華人不出兩種:
    (a) 果D狂擦自油黨鞋﹐令人嘔心嘅所謂社區人士﹑僑領﹐同自油黨有利益關係。God knows what goodies await them。
    (b) 果D唔講道理﹐死硬愚忠於自由黨嘅小市民。
    以上嘅兩種人都屬少數﹐因此多D華人出黎選﹐點解唔係勝負原因? 我就話係好大關鍵喇。

    (二) 保守黨大勢已去。宗教撥款無啦啦變咗成個選舉事嘅主角﹐都咪話唔無稽。咁就煮死咗成個黨。

    (三) 自油黨競選資源豐裕﹐起richmond hill拉票規模明顯大D。

    (四) 伊朗佬太多fan屎。真係多到你唔信﹐果班伊朗同鄉會呀… 嘩。

    至於其他呀李家豪麥之華佢地up話袁海耀D個人不足.. 咩形象唔好呀﹐成日攻擊人呀﹐乜乜乜﹐可能都有少少影響嘅﹐不過我就覺得唔大囉。起華人候選人黎講﹐袁海耀質素真係算幾唔錯﹐幾難得先有個似少少樣﹐有D機可以推到入省議會嘅華人… 咁又冇咗。又係淨得番個塵廳長。可惜﹐可惜﹗

    基基Li輸:
    基本都係同袁海耀一樣﹐比保守黨大勢已去影響。不過基基輸泄比袁海耀太多喇﹗

    (一) 競選策略 (應該係因為資源所限?) 嚴重有問題。一路以來得罪人多稱呼人少﹐由頭到尾都係以某程度上嘅負面形象示人。(你諗下﹐佢第一次成為話題焦點係乜? 因為”偷步插牌”﹗)
    而佢果個競選團﹐由始至終都似乎係倒米多過幫拖囉。而基基本身應對態度同能力都有問題﹐到後期佢自己都已經採取自暴自棄嘅狀態﹐唔輸就奇啦。

    (二) 個人問題 – 基基冇經驗﹐冇勢。塵廳長太強。講完。下次再出過黎啦﹐四年後又係一條好漢﹐再唔啱咪玩市選囉﹐呵呵。

  4. 剛剛聽番尋日節目個archive﹗唔聽尤自可﹐一聽又把鬼火。第一位打上去嘅聽眾先生﹐話袁海耀唔應該公開起報紙傳媒講話自己拉票時﹐遇著D華人反應好冷淡﹔阿生認為袁海耀咁講會激嬲咗D華人﹐使D人唔投佢票﹗
    嘩大佬﹐咁都得? 你估D人傻架咩? 咁的而且確你兜華人係咁嘅反應﹐點解唔講得? 講出黎等大家知道普遍華人對投票嘅態度﹐希望可以激發到D較為掙氣嘅華人出黎扭轉局面﹗竟然話因為咁樣指咗個事實出黎而 “得罪"咗D華人? 真係荒謬﹗

    “投票? 得閒先啦!"﹑"冇車呀"﹑"打緊牌"﹑"男人唔係屋企﹐話唔到事.."
    呢D都係普遍反應﹐二百幾個理由﹐總有藉口推托﹐你問下D幫手競選拉票果D華人義工﹐邊個唔係拉到好激心?

  5. I rec’d Alex’s campaign phone call voicemail on Wed election day when I came home in the evening. I voted 0900 in the morning. Also, living in Richmond Hill, my riding became Oak Ridges-Markham, while Alex is Richmond Hill. So I think Mr Tory, and the new election wards play a part in killing him.

  6. 見龍在田君評K.K. Li之敗, 一語中的. [K.K.這不是你杯茶].

    從政真的那麼吸引嗎? 但縱然是如何吸引, 也要看自己是否適合. (我也想做科學家, 藝術家, 但自知沒有這方面的能力, 只好從事自己能力所及和適合自己性格的工作). 本不願再重覆說令李先生聽來不舒服的話, 但請李先生明白, 忠言逆耳. 到目前為止, 在李先生身上, 看不見有成功從政者(不要說政治家)的特質.

  7. 講真,Cat Lover, 我覺得安省好多政客都冇乜有從政應有嘅特質。只不過係李生佢特別比人睇出弱點,但係比d時間佢改,如果佢接受意見嘅話,下次可能打沉哂d對手嫁喎,nothing is impossible. 講真,如果安省有政客玩野玩到阿扁嘅水準而做省長,我會接受,拍手掌tim。咩黨都冇所謂。

  8. If the young dude in the picture above is Alex’s kid, I think he was thinking…

    “Dad, you lost both the election and the bet. Pay up now!"

    Personally, I did wish Alex would win the riding there even though I am not a resident in Richmond Hill. Anyway, I agree with pretty much everybody’s analyses especially 霄bro’s.

    Hopefully, when I write about my thoughts on the election later here or else where, it will be as offensive as those towards the politically impotent voters and Michael Chan by Alex who many of “his" people accused of offending.

  9. 青天葵同學:

    不錯, 人是要敢於挑戰困難, 有世上沒有不可能的事情的心態. 我亦同意你的看法, 不少安省現今政客沒有具備政客/政治家的素質和條件. 我對李先生的評語/勸說, 是出於善意. 原因有: 一. 他年紀己不輕, 要他花太多的精力去適應和學習一件根本不適合他的工作, 會吃力不討好和事倍功半. 二. 他如果真的想服務社群, 他本身的職業可以提供不少機會, 為什麼一定要從政呢?

    我認為就算他下次再參選, 真的如你所說的打沉對手而當選, 對他來說也不一定是好事. 除了得到了議員的虛名外, 他將損失更多: 時間, 工作樂趣和滿足, 健康等.

  10. 主要落敗原因:

    李基傑:
    ******

    太乸形, 講嘢唔夠 assertive、 臨陣退縮、 東躲西閃避開傳媒、有一個冇用又惡屎能登嘅 campaign manager、 核突 campaign signs、 被宗教學校議題拖垮、 對手是 “Revenue Minister", 太强 。

    袁海耀:
    ******

    冇重點出擊 Moridi 死穴 – slush fund involvement, 而一味攻擊已屬第二個選區嘅陳國治、 末全力向區內依朗人「唱衰」Moridi, 將 Moridi 定位為一壞人 (如上依朗電台唱衰 Moridi 等)。

    總之, 今次自油黨用 Hate-Monger 策略, 十足十做戲d殺人王一樣, 身中多槍亦好似若無其事咁, 重可以拮番起身一招 (i.e. 宗教學校) 就攞 PC 命!

    四年後, 唔該 PC 醒少少, 唔好高估大部份省民的智商及理解力, 如果 common sense 話可能有問題的, 就靜悄悄收集完民意才決定應否題議出來, 以免又被無恥嘅自油黨再有痛腳揸喇!

  11. 這兩位華裔侯選人落選最主要原因是加拿大選舉文化—以選政黨為主,其次才是個別侯選人問題。

    以小弟所住選區為例,很多次選舉的候選人都是新參選人士,相信許多投票人都不認識侯選人,最佳選擇是唯有選政黨。

    另一例子是當年的Kim Campbell,她需有很高的知度,但她所屬政黨已不受選民歡迎,所以也落選。

    但某些選區是某些政黨的根據地,他們在該地區多年來做了許多地方工作,深受當地居民歡迎,所以其他政黨很難打進去。

    Alex 及KK的個人落敗原因,很多網友已有提及,不再複述。

  12. I have something on my site that might suggest why the PC party might have lost this time around.

    This is an old post back on Oct 5th, so it could be a bit out of date.

    http://www.pleasantlifestyle.com/ontario-election-progressive-conservative-review/

  13. Having read all posts at Kahoo.ca, I ponder that there are other reasons as well.

    (1) Cultural difference
    Yuan believed in speaking his mind on the shortcomings of opponents. However, Yuan had been so blunt that his attack on Michael Chan’s weakness in English language could be perceived “ruthless". Such act would be okay for the locals as part of political mud-slinging. But for the Chinese residents, it contradicts so much with their value of humility. Unfortunately, such debate on another candidate’s qualification took the spotlight than other important issues. Yuan’s offensive play backfired and made the defensive Michael Chan more likable.

    (2) Tactics
    As a Chinese, Yuan would expect that his people could pay attention to him so he could captivate their hearts as well as votes. As some already mentioned, he “appeared" to spend a lot of times in the local Chinese Radio to attack Michael Chan than his Iranian opponent, even though Michael Chan was running in the Markham-Unionville riding that Alex lost in the by-election, prompting others to think that Yuan might take revenge in his attack and look down on Chan.

    (3) Untold Chinese virtue
    To some degree, Yuan was naive. He simply believed that some of those Chinese at the door-to-door visits said they would vote for him indeed would come out to vote for him. Well, it’s his misunderstanding of his own countrymen. Growing up here, Yuan would not understand that those Chinese would say something but it isn’t necessarily what they mean or think. They do that because they do not want (a) embarrassment or (b) confrontation. Saying one thing and doing another is another survival tactics (or simply hypocrisy to me). Yuan committed the cardinal sin of putting his faith and trust into his fellow Chinese residents in Richmond Hill. I bet that not even 25% of the people that said they would vote for him came out to vote. Well, I hope Yuan knows that now how politically impotent and unreliable their countrymen are.

    Alex Yuan’s defeat has sent a disturbing signal out to the prospective candidates. I can’t help thinking that results also reflected the reality that politics is a game that only the ones with the most calculating tactics win. No matter how dirty you play the games, you would win if you could fool/convince/scare your voters that the other choice is even worse. Obviously, the Liberal party seized the opportunity to attack John Tory’s controversial faith-based school funding and turned the table over with their scare tactics, contributing to Yuan’s demise. However, Yuan’s lack of charm, charisma, and “friendly" personality did put him into a disadvantage. Too bad, he bet his money on those who in turn failed him.


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